ISLAMABAD, Feb 24 – Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) leader Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman has warned that Pakistan’s control over Balochistan is weakening, drawing parallels to the events of 1971 that led to the creation of Bangladesh.
Speaking in the National Assembly, he suggested that five to seven districts in Balochistan could be at risk of breaking away, with the possibility of international recognition of their independence.
Rehman’s remarks contrast with official government statements, which maintain that Balochistan remains stable. He argued that armed groups are gaining influence while state control is diminishing, blaming what he described as unilateral governance by the military. “If the Baloch were to declare separation today, people might support them,” he warned, pointing to growing public discontent.
His party, JUI-F, has also been targeted by militants, including a July 2023 suicide bombing by the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) at a rally in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), which killed 44 people and injured nearly 200.
Rising Violence in Balochistan
According to the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Pakistan witnessed over 1,600 deaths in terrorist attacks in 2024, including 250 security personnel fatalities in Balochistan alone. Violence in the province surged following the launch of Operation Azm-i-Ishtekam in June 2024, a counterterrorism initiative backed by China.
Local grievances have been linked to the growing presence of security forces and Chinese personnel involved in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. Critics also accuse Chief Minister Mir Sarfraz Ahmed Bugti’s administration of stifling dissent, though no official response has been issued.
Rehman called for dialogue between the government and residents of Balochistan and KP, warning that instability could halt development projects, including CPEC initiatives. He previously urged Parliament to engage with local communities to prevent further escalation, but the military has not publicly responded to his latest remarks.
Surge in Militant Attacks
Rehman’s warnings come amid escalating violence. Last week, four security personnel were killed and eight injured in attacks on Frontier Corps and Levies’ checkpoints in Kalat and Kech districts. On February 1, clashes in Harnai and Kalat left 18 Pakistani soldiers and 23 suspected militants dead.
The Pakistan Security Report 2024, a study by a local think tank, recorded a sharp rise in terrorist incidents, with 95% of attacks occurring in KP and Balochistan. Balochistan saw an 84% increase in attacks compared to 2023, with 202 incidents resulting in 322 deaths and 534 injuries. The banned Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) was linked to 225 fatalities.
Despite intensified security operations—partly driven by Chinese concerns over CPEC investments—Rehman argued that state authority remains weak in Balochistan and southern KP, citing deserted police checkpoints and the growing presence of armed groups.
Analysts warn that if the security situation continues to deteriorate, Pakistan could face significant territorial and political challenges in the coming years.